To keep investors' confidence, however, Modi's government will need to be seen containing the fiscal deficit, while also increasing spending in key areas of the slowing economy.
The share of non-resident Indians (NRIs) and overseas investors in Indian mutual funds has been declining over time, despite adding half-a-trillion rupees to holdings over the last five years. Mutual fund holdings for the segment went up from Rs 0.95 trillion as of December 2018 to Rs 1.54 trillion as of December 2022, shows Business Standard analysis of data from the industry body Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). Their share in overall mutual fund assets has fallen from 4.2 per cent to 3.9 per cent during the same period.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs), which were the major sellers last month, are on a buying spree.
Dalal Street investors became richer by more than Rs 16.36 lakh crore this year as the equity market scaled new highs despite persistent geopolitical uncertainties and inflation worries. Analysts attributed better macroeconomic fundamentals, the confidence of retail investors and foreign investors investing again in the domestic equities towards the latter half of 2022 as the key factors that led to the outperformance of the Indian market in comparison to many other stock markets worldwide. During the initial part of the year, markets were jolted by the Russia-Ukraine war.
IT and interest rate-sensitive bank, realty, and auto stocks ended with sharp gains.
Losses largely came from the metal index, followed by power, infrastructure, realty, PSU, oil and gas, capital goods, FMCG, healthcare, auto and banking.
As the Union Budget 2025-2026 (FY26) inches closer, the Indian real estate industry is seeking stamp duty cuts, revised home loan limits and updated affordable housing norms through Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna (PMAY), single-window clearance and eco-friendly policies, among others. Industry leaders and consultancy firms, including Anarock, Raheja, Gaurs, Kanodia Group, Reach, Urban Space, Justo and Eros Group, have shared their expectations.
The broader NSE Nifty managed to end higher for the second day at 10,426.85, up by 5.45 points or 0.05 per cent after shuttling between 10,478.60 and 10,377.85, intra-day.
Movement in the stock market this week will largely be driven by global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Equity benchmark indices, which are on a dream run for the past several days, will also track trading in global oil benchmark Brent crude and movement of rupee against the US dollar. "The next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting is scheduled for mid-September, but before that, the market will be closely watching upcoming US economic data.
Domestic markets conduct a special one-hour Muhurat trading session on Diwali every year to mark the beginning of the traditional Hindu calendar year, called 'Vikram Samvat'.
'It will be a cat and mouse game between investors and the government.' 'The issue will be launched only if there is sufficient demand from investors and the government is in agreement with the bankers on the valuations.'
After withdrawing record funds in 2021-22, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their sell-off in the last fiscal too and pulled out Rs 37,631 crore from Indian equities amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally. The outflow trend is likely to reverse in the current financial year since India has the best growth potential in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. Market analysts believe that FPI flows in the current financial year would be decided by a host of factors, such as the US Federal Reserve's policy stance, oil prices movement and development in the geopolitical situation.
Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
'Additionally, the significant employment multiplier will boost direct and indirect jobs of up to 1.1 million.'
Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, M&M and Tata Motors were the major winners.
As many as 267 of 453 companies from the BSE500 index are trading above their consensus price targets, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg. Not all companies in the BSE500 index are tracked by analysts.
The Indian equity market valuation has been moving in tandem with the US 10-year treasury yield. While the benchmark US bond yield has witnessed a nearly 70 basis point decline since the end of October this year, dropping from 4.93 per cent to 4.23 per cent on Friday, the Sensex earnings yield has slipped by nearly 45 basis points - from 4.5 per cent to 4.05 per cent. Previously, Indian equities' earnings yields rose in sync with the US bond yields.
The NSE index Nifty ended above the 10,500-mark.
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank was the biggest loser and fell 6.13 per cent, followed by SBI (3.99 pc), Hindustan Unilever (3.82 pc), Axis Bank (3.41 pc) and HDFC Bank (3.23 pc). In contrast, Sun Pharma, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank and PowerGrid defied the trend and closed with gains of up to 3.67 per cent. TCS and Bajaj Finserve were the other gainers.
Sun Pharma emerged as the biggest gainer from the Sensex pack, climbing 2.09 per cent, followed by ITC, Titan, Bajaj Finance, Nestle, Infosys, L&T, JSW Steel, Reliance Industries and Kotak Mahindra Bank. UltraTech Cement, Maruti, HDFC Bank, Wipro, State Bank of India and NTPC were among the laggards.
FPIs' ownership in NSE-listed companies reached a five-year high of 22.74 per cent in December 2020 on the back of huge net inflow of Rs 1.42 lakh crore by such investors in the third quarter.
With the absence of any major immediate domestic trigger in sight, investors would focus on global trends and trading activity of foreign investors for further cues in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the market. "This week is a truncated one with no major triggers expected. However, we anticipate sector-specific movements amid budget-related buzz.
ICICI Bank was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, slipping 2.81 per cent, followed by Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank and Power Grid. Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, Larsen & Toubro and Titan were the gainers.
Institutional investors - both foreign and domestic - lapped up the government's big-ticket share sales on Friday, helping it add nearly Rs 9,000 crore to its revenue kitty.
The rupee depreciated 22 paise to a record low of 78.59 against the US dollar in opening trade on Tuesday as persistent foreign funds outflows weighed on investor sentiments. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened on a weak note at 78.53 against the American dollar, then lost ground to quote at 78.59 -- its all-time low level, registering a fall of 22 paise from the last close. On Monday, the rupee declined by 4 paise to close at its life-time low of 78.37 against the US dollar.
Among the Sensex firms, JSW Steel, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, NTPC, Wipro, HCL Technologies, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Power Grid and Reliance Industries Limited were the major laggards. Mahindra & Mahindra and Bajaj Finance were the gainers.
From the Sensex basket, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Axis Bank, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Larsen & Toubro, ICICI Bank and Power Grid were the major gainers. Tata Motors dropped over 8 per cent despite reporting over three-fold jump in consolidated net profit at Rs 17,528.59 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2024. NTPC, Bharti Airtel, Titan, State Bank of India and Nestle were the other major laggards.
Analysts are expecting pharmaceutical companies to post sales growth of 10-11 per cent in the second quarter this financial year while the Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) margins are anticipated to improve by about 110 basis points. Ebitda improvement will be led by lower input costs because prices of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are 5-15 per cent lower year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Axis Capital said sales growth would be around 10 per cent, of which growth in the India market would be 11 per cent or so.
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The biggest bounce is in the realty sector, where the industry index jumped 80%. There's been a turnaround also in automobiles and ancillaries (up 45%). The pharma and health care indices have a welcome return of roughly 35%.
Unabated buying by domestic institutional investors and wholesale price inflation falling to 2.60 per cent in September, helped both the key indices to scale new highs.
Top losers in the session included Maruti, Tata Motors, RIL, Yes Bank, Adani Ports, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, ONGC, HUL, Kotak Bank, IndusInd Bank and Axis Bank, falling up to 5 per cent.
From the Sensex pack, Larsen & Toubro, JSW Steel, IndusInd Bank, Power Grid, ITC, Mahindra & Mahindra, NTPC, HDFC Bank, ITC, Reliance Industries and Tata Motors were among the major laggards. Bajaj Finserv, Asian Paints Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel and Axis Bank were among the gainers.
Steel maker JSW Steel's Q3 results, announced on January 24, 2025, after market hours, failed to meet Street expectations. The company reported a consolidated net profit attributable to the owners of Rs 717 crore in Q3FY25, reflecting a 70.3 per cent decline Y-o-Y, compared to Rs 2,415 crore in Q3FY24.
Among the Sensex firms, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel, Wipro, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra and JSW Steel were the major laggards. Power Grid, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra and NTPC were among the gainers.
'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
Institutional buying/selling activity shows domestic institutions were aggressively selling, whereas foreign institutional investors were seen lapping up stocks.
Selling in index heavyweights, including Infosys, TCS, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries, dragged the benchmark indices into the negative for the second straight session, analysts said. Among the Sensex shares, Asian Paints fell the most by 3.9 per cent as analysts expressed concerns over rising competition in the domestic paints market following the entry of Aditya Birla group company Grasim Industries into the paints segment. IT shares Infosys, TCS, HCL Tech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra continued to slide amid inflation concerns in the US market.
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